Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: pd103kid on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: pd103kid on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
OK! So I'm on my iMac 27 (paid for by Lending Club interest) listening to Janis Joplin on Pandora and wondering to myself - what are you dude's on this system doing with their money? Below are my numbers off of my taxable account. I am using 'Prime' as my automated investment scheme ; how about yourself?
In Funding 50
Issued & Current 2,286
In Grace Period 14
Fully Paid 765
Late 16 - 30 Days 3
Late 31 - 120 Days 24
Default 4
Charged Off 99
My charge off rate is around 3.33 percent and the vast majority of my notes are for $25. For some reason, perhaps driven by the Martini I am currently imbibing is that I'm doing pretty well compared to the poor fools out there trying to make use of CD's. Chime in with your comments; not so much as to my being a old drunkard but more to the use of Lending Club to make us rich!
Joe
In Funding 50
Issued & Current 2,286
In Grace Period 14
Fully Paid 765
Late 16 - 30 Days 3
Late 31 - 120 Days 24
Default 4
Charged Off 99
My charge off rate is around 3.33 percent and the vast majority of my notes are for $25. For some reason, perhaps driven by the Martini I am currently imbibing is that I'm doing pretty well compared to the poor fools out there trying to make use of CD's. Chime in with your comments; not so much as to my being a old drunkard but more to the use of Lending Club to make us rich!
Joe
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: PeerSocialLending on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: PeerSocialLending on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Currently just reinvesting and adding to my account as much as I can. I don't plan on making any withdrawals unless it is to re-balance my overall investment portfolio.
My Notes at-a-Glance (450)
In Funding 35
Issued & Current 390
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 17
Late 16 - 30 Days 0
Late 31 - 120 Days 2
Default 1
Charged Off 2
My Notes at-a-Glance (450)
In Funding 35
Issued & Current 390
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 17
Late 16 - 30 Days 0
Late 31 - 120 Days 2
Default 1
Charged Off 2
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: rlv99 on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rlv99 on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
In Funding 12
issued & Current 2,234
In Grace period 25
Fully Paid 130
Late 16-30 7
late 31-120 20
Default 3
charged off 9
Adjusted NAR 15.76%
Most of the above notes are $50. This account was opened 14 months ago. I have a second account (IRA; average note $100.) which I opened in January, 2014. Although fully funded now, too immature to recite here.
While I have used IR and Blue Vestment for auto-invest, I prefer to use the LC filters and select my loans "manually".
Since I am already retired my goal is not to "make us rich" but to supplement existing income and preserve principle which LC has accomplished for me to date. I drag out amounts equal to interest earned during the month minus defaults and charge offs.
Since the number of your Fully Paid is greater than mine I assume you have been on the platform longer than me which would account for the higher number of charge offs as well. Thanks for sharing.
issued & Current 2,234
In Grace period 25
Fully Paid 130
Late 16-30 7
late 31-120 20
Default 3
charged off 9
Adjusted NAR 15.76%
Most of the above notes are $50. This account was opened 14 months ago. I have a second account (IRA; average note $100.) which I opened in January, 2014. Although fully funded now, too immature to recite here.
While I have used IR and Blue Vestment for auto-invest, I prefer to use the LC filters and select my loans "manually".
Since I am already retired my goal is not to "make us rich" but to supplement existing income and preserve principle which LC has accomplished for me to date. I drag out amounts equal to interest earned during the month minus defaults and charge offs.
Since the number of your Fully Paid is greater than mine I assume you have been on the platform longer than me which would account for the higher number of charge offs as well. Thanks for sharing.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: cnmor54 on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: cnmor54 on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
In Funding 82
Issued & Current 903
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 50
Late 16 - 30 Days 5
Late 31 - 120 Days 11
Default 1
Charged Off 5
All but 8 of my notes are $25. I have been slowly upping my investment since this past May and I started selling on folio heavily in January. I initially started with the idea of doing just a little better than CDs but it has since turned into quite the hobby.
And a toast to Janis.
Carol
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: gamassey on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: gamassey on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
In Funding: 42
Issued & Current: 1,221
In Grace Period: 4
Fully Paid: 33
Late 16 - 30 Days: 1
Late 31 - 120 Days: 9
Default: 3
Charged Off: 2
NAR: 14.32%
99% are $25 loans. I hand pick only the finest high interest loans and hope for the best. All interest is being re-invested until I double my initial investment.
Issued & Current: 1,221
In Grace Period: 4
Fully Paid: 33
Late 16 - 30 Days: 1
Late 31 - 120 Days: 9
Default: 3
Charged Off: 2
NAR: 14.32%
99% are $25 loans. I hand pick only the finest high interest loans and hope for the best. All interest is being re-invested until I double my initial investment.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: RaymondG on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: RaymondG on April 16, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
What's the average age of portfolio?
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Fred on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Fred on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: storm on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: storm on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
In Funding 67
Issued & Current 2,270
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 954
Late 16 - 30 Days 1
Late 31 - 120 Days 8
Default 0
Charged Off 11
NAR 12.82%
Average Age of Portfolio: 23.1 mos
And, yes, I sell my IGP loans on FolioFN. The late loans are bankruptcies that I can't list for sale any more.
Issued & Current 2,270
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 954
Late 16 - 30 Days 1
Late 31 - 120 Days 8
Default 0
Charged Off 11
NAR 12.82%
Average Age of Portfolio: 23.1 mos
And, yes, I sell my IGP loans on FolioFN. The late loans are bankruptcies that I can't list for sale any more.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Everyone seems to be doing well! I'll add a few more numbers off of my taxable account. I do have one IRA but it is small in comparison.
The account has been open for 3 years and 6 months. My last months interest totaled $373.00 for an Adjusted Net Annualized Return of 6.79% with an outstanding principal base of $41,500. I deposit $100 per week from a bank through EFT and let 'Prime' do the selection although originally I picked loans manually. It simply got too labor intensive!
As I had mentioned my charge off rate is around 3.33%; reasonable, I think, for my mix of notes - A 30%, B 48%, C 15% D 5% and others 2%.
The account has been open for 3 years and 6 months. My last months interest totaled $373.00 for an Adjusted Net Annualized Return of 6.79% with an outstanding principal base of $41,500. I deposit $100 per week from a bank through EFT and let 'Prime' do the selection although originally I picked loans manually. It simply got too labor intensive!
As I had mentioned my charge off rate is around 3.33%; reasonable, I think, for my mix of notes - A 30%, B 48%, C 15% D 5% and others 2%.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: rawraw on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rawraw on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Adjusted NAR 12.73%
In Funding 14
Issued & Current 998
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 165
Late 16 - 30 Days 1
Late 31 - 120 Days 13
Default 0
Charged Off 4
A (5.1%) B (38.1%) C(32.1%) D(16.4%) E(6.5%) F(1.7%) G(0.2%)
In Funding 14
Issued & Current 998
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 165
Late 16 - 30 Days 1
Late 31 - 120 Days 13
Default 0
Charged Off 4
A (5.1%) B (38.1%) C(32.1%) D(16.4%) E(6.5%) F(1.7%) G(0.2%)
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: rockinray on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rockinray on April 17, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Booleans on April 18, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Booleans on April 18, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Adjusted NAR of 11.95%.
I have no note over $25. Approximately 30% of my portfolio is 60 month notes but I don't think I'll be investing in those any longer.
I have no note over $25. Approximately 30% of my portfolio is 60 month notes but I don't think I'll be investing in those any longer.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on April 18, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on April 18, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Return Over Deposits (IR) 15.19
IRR (Interest Radar) 11.70%
NAR 17.68%
Adjusted NAR 17.11%
My Notes at-a-Glance (5336)
In Funding 101
Issued & Current 4,108
In Grace Period 46
Fully Paid 1,033
Late 16 - 30 Days 12
Late 31 - 120 Days 15
Default 0
Charged Off 21
Average Age: 9 mos. (started in '08)
Term: 56.9% 60 mos.
43.1% 36 mos.
All notes are $25 except for 25 notes which are $50 (by accident!).
I favor 36 mos. notes when possible, and all selections have been manual so far.
Also, I use Folio for loss mitigation but would rather not "have to".
IRR (Interest Radar) 11.70%
NAR 17.68%
Adjusted NAR 17.11%
My Notes at-a-Glance (5336)
In Funding 101
Issued & Current 4,108
In Grace Period 46
Fully Paid 1,033
Late 16 - 30 Days 12
Late 31 - 120 Days 15
Default 0
Charged Off 21
Average Age: 9 mos. (started in '08)
Term: 56.9% 60 mos.
43.1% 36 mos.
All notes are $25 except for 25 notes which are $50 (by accident!).
I favor 36 mos. notes when possible, and all selections have been manual so far.
Also, I use Folio for loss mitigation but would rather not "have to".
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I hold a mixture of $25 and $50 notes but the $50's are very minimal now for I started out mixing but have been at $25 for at least two years. The same can be said for 36 and 60 month notes and the 60's are also minimal now for I've been exclusively 36 months again for at least two years.
Adjusted Net Annualized Return : 6.78 %
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 10.85%
Average Age of Portfolio: 19.0 mos
Number of Notes: 3,259
Interesting on the defaults; they were small in number (as might be expected) when I did my selections manually early on. Once I handed off my allocating to the machines it has increased. This all makes sense for I tended to concentrate on A and B notes when I was involved so when PRIME took the helm it began (as advertised) pulling down many more lower quality notes.
Still, compared to Money Markets at 0.01 percent (and they are losing money keeping it at $1) or my "High Yield" CD's at say 1% for a year a Lending Club account, (computer driven or manual) is far superior in today's Central Banks driven slow deflationary spiral.
Adjusted Net Annualized Return : 6.78 %
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 10.85%
Average Age of Portfolio: 19.0 mos
Number of Notes: 3,259
Interesting on the defaults; they were small in number (as might be expected) when I did my selections manually early on. Once I handed off my allocating to the machines it has increased. This all makes sense for I tended to concentrate on A and B notes when I was involved so when PRIME took the helm it began (as advertised) pulling down many more lower quality notes.
Still, compared to Money Markets at 0.01 percent (and they are losing money keeping it at $1) or my "High Yield" CD's at say 1% for a year a Lending Club account, (computer driven or manual) is far superior in today's Central Banks driven slow deflationary spiral.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: mikedave on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: mikedave on April 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
In Funding 31
Issued & Current 1,022
In Grace Period 3
Fully Paid 38
Late 16 - 30 Days 1
Late 31 - 120 Days 6
Default 0
Charged Off 0
Ave age 6mo
From Interest Radar
Return over deposits: 8.08%
IRR: 14.85%
A
B 48
C 731
D 227
E 92
F 2
G 1
Sum 1,101
This is a mix of new notes purchased mainly using IR filters (~70%), and notes purchased on Folio (~30%) I sell quite a few notes of Folio also
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Bohb Daishi on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Bohb Daishi on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
In Funding 11
Issued & Current 178
In Grace Period 52
Fully Paid 48
Late 16 - 30 Days 18
Late 31 - 120 Days 738
Default 51
Charged Off 298
NAR: -40.47%
Issued & Current 178
In Grace Period 52
Fully Paid 48
Late 16 - 30 Days 18
Late 31 - 120 Days 738
Default 51
Charged Off 298
NAR: -40.47%
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: lascott on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: lascott on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Ran on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Ran on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Jomar on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Jomar on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: core on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: core on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: rawraw on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rawraw on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: merits on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: merits on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
In Funding 53
Issued & Current 1,360
In Grace Period 67
Fully Paid 40
Late 16 - 30 Days 46
Late 31 - 120 Days 291
Default 15
Charged Off 15
NAR: -42.52%
A great many of deep discount Folio notes
Issued & Current 1,360
In Grace Period 67
Fully Paid 40
Late 16 - 30 Days 46
Late 31 - 120 Days 291
Default 15
Charged Off 15
NAR: -42.52%
A great many of deep discount Folio notes
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on April 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 11, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 11, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I'm pretty new to all of this (obvious after seeing below!). A leg of my retirement stool. Shooting for net 9-11%.
----
Returns:
Quote
----
Returns:
Quote
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: DLIFVOIP on July 18, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: DLIFVOIP on July 18, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Here are my numbers. I only buy new loans and only sell non performing loans on the FOLIO platform. For the first 4 years of investing I only did $25 per, but since the beginning of the year I had to increase to $50 per to keep up with reinvesting payments as well as being able to invest new funds.
In Funding - 176
Issued & Current - 18,068
In Grace Period - 83
Fully Paid - 4,525
Late 16 - 30 Days - 23
Late 31 - 120 Days - 47
Default - 2
Charged Off - 53
Grade breakdown is as follows:
A - 29.7%
B - 34.7%
C - 24.1%
D - 8.4%
E - 2.2%
F - 0.6%
G - 0.1%
LC says my NAR is 11.15%, but as I said I sell on the Folio platform so not 100% accurate. My XIRR is 9.55% however it will typically take me over 30 days to invest new funds when I make large deposits, so XIRR is not 100% accurate as well as funds sit around for a while sometimes. So my real return is between the two. I really do not focus on those #'s as I like to look at actual $ return each month based on beginning of month o/s principle.
In Funding - 176
Issued & Current - 18,068
In Grace Period - 83
Fully Paid - 4,525
Late 16 - 30 Days - 23
Late 31 - 120 Days - 47
Default - 2
Charged Off - 53
Grade breakdown is as follows:
A - 29.7%
B - 34.7%
C - 24.1%
D - 8.4%
E - 2.2%
F - 0.6%
G - 0.1%
LC says my NAR is 11.15%, but as I said I sell on the Folio platform so not 100% accurate. My XIRR is 9.55% however it will typically take me over 30 days to invest new funds when I make large deposits, so XIRR is not 100% accurate as well as funds sit around for a while sometimes. So my real return is between the two. I really do not focus on those #'s as I like to look at actual $ return each month based on beginning of month o/s principle.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: BruiserB on July 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: BruiserB on July 19, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
I've been in Lending Club since around September of 2011 and have been adding funds each year. I started out completely manually investing with just my gut feel by reading individual loan applications. Then I discovered Peter's yearly "How I'm Investing..." posts and started to mimic his filters as best as I could....either by downloading notes available and sorting in Excel (cumbersome) or by having NickelSteamRoller send me filter matches and still clicking manually. I was getting discouraged by how much work it was to keep up and how you had to be fast to find matches. Then everything changed around the beginning of this year when I found an ad for LendingRobot on Facebook and I automated my loan purchasing! Since then I have also discovered BlueVestment. Together these services have automated my filter investing and I have added some notes through P2P-Picks to my BlueVestment buying and started using LendingRobot's Expected Yield modeling to select notes. This year I have more than doubled my LC investment and have no trouble keeping payments reinvested! Third party investing totally changed the way I invest and the knowledge of Peter and the others on the boards here have educated me greatly since I picked my first loans by the "this person seems nice" method!
I haven't bought or sold at all on Folio....still educating myself but not feeling the need to do it at this point.
So here are my numbers so far:
In Funding: 186
Issued & Current: 4,427
In Grace Period 34
Fully Paid 536
Late 16-30 16
Late 31-120 59
Default 3
Charged off 181
Composition by $
A 3.2%
B 3.7%
C 14.1%
D 38.1%
E 25.8%
F 11.7%
G 3.4%
36 month 41.5% (has grown a lot this year since using P2P-Picks...was more like 25% before)
60 month 58.5%
Current Average Portfolio Age 12 months (have added about half my account value since January)
Weighted Average Rate 18.47%
LC NAR 13.35%
LC Adjusted NAR 11.29%
Overall XIRR 11.54% (since opening my account)
2011 XIRR 10.35%
2012 XIRR 10.76%
2013 XIRR 12.17%
2014 YTD XIRR 11.41%
I also have an IRA that I started late last year and have funded for last year and this year. It currently is showing an NAR of 15.55% and Adjusted NAR of 12.46% Overall XIRR is 12.7% so far.
I haven't bought or sold at all on Folio....still educating myself but not feeling the need to do it at this point.
So here are my numbers so far:
In Funding: 186
Issued & Current: 4,427
In Grace Period 34
Fully Paid 536
Late 16-30 16
Late 31-120 59
Default 3
Charged off 181
Composition by $
A 3.2%
B 3.7%
C 14.1%
D 38.1%
E 25.8%
F 11.7%
G 3.4%
36 month 41.5% (has grown a lot this year since using P2P-Picks...was more like 25% before)
60 month 58.5%
Current Average Portfolio Age 12 months (have added about half my account value since January)
Weighted Average Rate 18.47%
LC NAR 13.35%
LC Adjusted NAR 11.29%
Overall XIRR 11.54% (since opening my account)
2011 XIRR 10.35%
2012 XIRR 10.76%
2013 XIRR 12.17%
2014 YTD XIRR 11.41%
I also have an IRA that I started late last year and have funded for last year and this year. It currently is showing an NAR of 15.55% and Adjusted NAR of 12.46% Overall XIRR is 12.7% so far.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: turing on July 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: turing on July 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Newbie so not much to show for this account right now.
Account only 1.5 months old. My other account has more loans but all of them are 'issued' or 'in funding' and 0 months old (started about 2 weeks ago)
In Funding 4
Issued & Current 54
In Grace Period 0
Fully Paid 1
Late 16 - 30 Days 0
Late 31 - 120 Days 0
Default 0
Charge-off 0
Account only 1.5 months old. My other account has more loans but all of them are 'issued' or 'in funding' and 0 months old (started about 2 weeks ago)
In Funding 4
Issued & Current 54
In Grace Period 0
Fully Paid 1
Late 16 - 30 Days 0
Late 31 - 120 Days 0
Default 0
Charge-off 0
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: JoeB on July 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: JoeB on July 20, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: DLIFVOIP on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: DLIFVOIP on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: cfb on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: cfb on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Rob L on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Rob L on July 21, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: rawraw on July 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rawraw on July 22, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: trevor on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: trevor on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Circle, I have a general question about your loan selection. Do you prefer to invest in safer notes (A-C) throughout the majority of your managed Lending Club accounts, or just mainly for your primary account that has 500k invested?
Also, when did you get the confidence to start investing large amounts of cash into P2P lending?
Also, when did you get the confidence to start investing large amounts of cash into P2P lending?
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 23, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
And I was wondering how you got 30 G string, / no, scratch that /, G notes in your portfolio(s).
Must have been really slow days.
My own "unsubstantiated opinion" is that F's and G's are darts at the board.
Even LC cannot underwrite them appropriately.
Must have been really slow days.
My own "unsubstantiated opinion" is that F's and G's are darts at the board.
Even LC cannot underwrite them appropriately.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on July 24, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: hoggy1 on August 08, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: hoggy1 on August 08, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: DLIFVOIP on August 09, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: DLIFVOIP on August 09, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: hoggy1 on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: hoggy1 on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Thanks Adam,
Where are you located?
Do your clients tend to be local? Widely scattered?
How do clients find you? You advertise somewhere?
Where are you located?
Do your clients tend to be local? Widely scattered?
How do clients find you? You advertise somewhere?
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: trevor on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: trevor on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Adam, out of curiosity, do you have other large investments like equities or do you feel secure having a large majority of your assets in Lending Club?
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on August 10, 2014, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: lascott on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: lascott on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: RaymondG on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: RaymondG on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
No. It's play money. I am chasing the return. In mid 2014, I expanded into C grade for several months. But the default rate of this C group is the same like the D group, about 4% with avg loan age 11.2 months. Apparently, my filter worked best with loans of grade D.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: rawraw on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: rawraw on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Mine looks extremely similar to your first picture, except I have 6% or so in F.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 18, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
I did not see anyone having commented about loan default rate by ZIP codes since ZIP# was added to the download file. Here is what is observed in my account. It's interest to see some clusters formed. The loans being analyzed are issued between 3 years and 6 months ago. Distribution among grades are: C: 12%, D: 55%, E:26%, etc. 75% were purchased after 1/2014. In the chart, "Current Score Adj" is for adjusting the score that would tighten the filter. "Lost Int rate" is estimated from $ value of total loss, earned interest, and avg interest rate. "Annualized ruin rate" estimates what number of notes were "writen-off", where total loss in number of notes is estimated from number of charged-offs, lates, and FolioFn sales. I intend to use "Annualized ruin rate" to evaluate my filter ignoring note size and improvement due to FolioFn sales. Thanks.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 19, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 19, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 19, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 19, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Yea please start a thread on this. I'd like to do some digging as well
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: sean3.eth on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: sean3.eth on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
I went into Lending Club kind of blindly picking notes with no particular strategy and I have been amazed by how many loans have gone bad so quickly. My account is only 16 or 17 months old. The average age of my portfolio is 9 months. Not including notes "in funding", I've purchased 2,131 notes.
100ish of them have gone bad already (late, defaulted or charged off)
200ish have paid off early
These default numbers look exponentially higher than what was posted earlier in this thread by other users. Is it just because I have a terrible portfolio (although Lending Club shows me as being in the middle of the pack on the chart) or is it because everyone is selling off their bad loans on folio?
I have never used folio. My accountant was confused enough a couple months ago as it was and I didn't want to add in another element that would make things even more difficult for him to figure out. That in turn would make it more costly for him to do my taxes (offsetting whatever benefit folio might bring considering how small the value of my account is.)
The fact that almost 5% of my loans have already gone bad in the first 9 months when the average loan term of my portfolio is 4 years is frightening. And with the number of people who are rejecting their monthly ACHs (20ish at any given time are in the grace period), I'm not exactly super optimistic about the long term prospects here. My borrowers are broke right out of the gate.
I have run some analyses to spot what correlations exist between defaults and early payoffs and have been applying those theories to my picks going forward, but I wanted to get some feedback on whether you guys think I have gotten crushed or am "just average" as Lending Club indicates. My adjusted NAR is 9.40% at present.
100ish of them have gone bad already (late, defaulted or charged off)
200ish have paid off early
These default numbers look exponentially higher than what was posted earlier in this thread by other users. Is it just because I have a terrible portfolio (although Lending Club shows me as being in the middle of the pack on the chart) or is it because everyone is selling off their bad loans on folio?
I have never used folio. My accountant was confused enough a couple months ago as it was and I didn't want to add in another element that would make things even more difficult for him to figure out. That in turn would make it more costly for him to do my taxes (offsetting whatever benefit folio might bring considering how small the value of my account is.)
The fact that almost 5% of my loans have already gone bad in the first 9 months when the average loan term of my portfolio is 4 years is frightening. And with the number of people who are rejecting their monthly ACHs (20ish at any given time are in the grace period), I'm not exactly super optimistic about the long term prospects here. My borrowers are broke right out of the gate.
I have run some analyses to spot what correlations exist between defaults and early payoffs and have been applying those theories to my picks going forward, but I wanted to get some feedback on whether you guys think I have gotten crushed or am "just average" as Lending Club indicates. My adjusted NAR is 9.40% at present.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: storm on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: storm on May 26, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
SeanMCA, please don't be discouraged. If you lump all the loan grades together, 5% is the current average default rate. Here is a good article about it. Also, if a loan is going to default, it is most likely going to do it within the first 8-10 months. Read this. So for the first loans you invested in, if they haven't defaulted already, the majority will remain current. Yes, it would be nice if LC could predict who is going to default in the first few months of the loan and deny them, but I don't think that is entirely possible.
For a long while, I sold my IGP and late loans on Folio, but it was becoming very time consuming as my investment has grown. I stopped back in February. My return has managed to tick up a bit since then. YMMV.
For a long while, I sold my IGP and late loans on Folio, but it was becoming very time consuming as my investment has grown. I stopped back in February. My return has managed to tick up a bit since then. YMMV.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: sean3.eth on June 05, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: sean3.eth on June 05, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
I think it's healthy to regularly question the numbers anyway. The sheer number of defaults is eye opening. Lots of bankruptcies and disappearing consumers who are never heard from again after a couple of payments.
Historically, 80% of the notes that I've ordered have been issued. But that number dropped recently to below 40% and for an entire two week period, I had more notes enter the 16-30 days late category than I was able to buy. They're actually defaulting faster than I can pick them up.
And the Grace Period category is continuing to swell. I don't think I can buy new ones fast enough to outpace the ones likely to move from Grace Period to 16-30 days late.
I am mostly giving up on high risk notes and shifting to As and Bs.
Historically, 80% of the notes that I've ordered have been issued. But that number dropped recently to below 40% and for an entire two week period, I had more notes enter the 16-30 days late category than I was able to buy. They're actually defaulting faster than I can pick them up.
And the Grace Period category is continuing to swell. I don't think I can buy new ones fast enough to outpace the ones likely to move from Grace Period to 16-30 days late.
I am mostly giving up on high risk notes and shifting to As and Bs.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on June 06, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on June 06, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Mine are also going late faster than they are issuing, and the overall total dropped as well due to a rash of early payoffs a week ago. The total issued and current climbed by only 6 in the last week, whereas the late count climbed by 19. But this is Sunday, and on Tuesday the numbers seem to change a lot.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: AnilG on June 06, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: AnilG on June 06, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Loan defaults are part of normal lending business, you can't avoid defaults. My concern is the timing of such defaults. Sooner loans default, larger fraction of original lent amount is lost. Frequent occurrence of such defaults indicate problems in Loan Origination Process. Recently, there appears to be rash of loans defaulting quickly on Lending Club.
from: Lovinglifestyle on June 07, 2015, 03:17:36 PM
from: Lovinglifestyle on June 07, 2015, 03:17:36 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 06, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 06, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Fred on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Fred on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: RazzleDazzle on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: RazzleDazzle on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
A Velocity graph may be? Interesting inference nonetheless if true.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: lascott on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: lascott on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: kya on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: kya on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
for what its worth i have also (for the first time in three years) started to buy more A,B and C notes. I have experienced the same recent trend of very quick defaults only 2-3 payments in on D,E,F & G notes no matter how good they looked when purchased. I am now also requiring a 700 plus fico score minimum. What is concerning is my LC account has far more deliquincy than my Prosper account currently. I have been buying with very similar filters and the accounts have almost the same number of notes so Im starting to believe Prosper is doing a better job underwriting right now. It also seems like many more delinquint notes pay there way back to current status on prosper rather than just tumbling down the delinquint chute to default status on LC. I am watching close and wonder since going public if LC isnt cutting corners for volume sake.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 07, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Also there's a saying in the b2b lending world. It's easy to lend money. The only thing that matters is being able to get it back.
Lending Club isn't under as much pressure to collect, just originate. It's incredibly easy to find people who want money. Immensely easy (doesn't mean they're all qualified). Let's not pat Lending Club on the back for volume when the only thing that matters is underwriting and collections. Any startup with money to burn can find borrowers.
Lending Club isn't under as much pressure to collect, just originate. It's incredibly easy to find people who want money. Immensely easy (doesn't mean they're all qualified). Let's not pat Lending Club on the back for volume when the only thing that matters is underwriting and collections. Any startup with money to burn can find borrowers.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: Peter on June 08, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: Peter on June 08, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 08, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 08, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
You will need to wait until Lending Club releases historical loan performance data and payment data.
My observations are based on daily variations in account value of different users (similar to the chart I posted before). What stood out in the posted chart are the frequent significant drop in account values in April-May and impact on portfolio value. These drops were not result of cash withdrawals from account. These drops not only wiped out all the gains from previous month but also took gains from next 6 weeks just to recover loss in portfolio value. Scott post does a good job for the source of the chart and potential interpretation.
from: Fred on June 08, 2015, 02:54:21 AM
My observations are based on daily variations in account value of different users (similar to the chart I posted before). What stood out in the posted chart are the frequent significant drop in account values in April-May and impact on portfolio value. These drops were not result of cash withdrawals from account. These drops not only wiped out all the gains from previous month but also took gains from next 6 weeks just to recover loss in portfolio value. Scott post does a good job for the source of the chart and potential interpretation.
from: Fred on June 08, 2015, 02:54:21 AM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 08, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 08, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Do you have information on the marketing channels used by Lending Club? What channels do they use?
IMO, only marketing channels used by Prosper and Lending Club that are not accessible to other platforms are their own borrowers for refinancing and exclusive referral partnerships such as Sam's Club and community banks. Lending Club recently announced roll out of the small business financing through Sam's Club. They are offering 20% discount in origination fee to member requesting loan through Sam's Club. I am also aware of how discount superstores like Costco squeeze the vendors for referral fees for Costco referral programs for cars, kitchen remodeling, and appliances etc, I doubt these referral leads are "cheap" in any way for Lending Club.
Just an hypothetical example for brain gymnastics: Origination fees on LC business loans is 1 - 6% without referral, that is $1,000 - $6,000 for $100,000 loans. The referral lead from Sam's Club at 20% discount to borrower already costing $200 - 1,200 on such loans. I doubt Sam's Club taking less than 20-30% of origination fee as referral fee for each successfully issued loan, i.e. another $200 - 900 referral fee to Sam's Club. I would guess fees for referral leads are the major portion of borrower acquisition cost, doesn't matter who is originating loans.
My understanding is that most platforms including Lending Club use variety of marketing channels including online advertising (adwords, banner ads, referral ads), lead generation sites such as Credit Karma, direct mailing, tv and print ads, and users checking their interest rates on platform and affiliate websites. You might get an idea of marketing channels used by different platform and their effectiveness by looking at marketing channel codes in Prosper historical data.
The borrower lead generation is very interesting business, more qualified the leads more expensive the leads. Some borrower lead generation vendors use auction style system. There are lot of scammy operations in this space. I can't find the source but there was an article in one of the publications (WaPo, NYT) about the underbelly of borrower lead generation business. There are hundreds of sites (credit repair, quick loans, etc) online whose sole purpose is to capture enough information about you to request credit check and then auction off the leads based on quality. The article mentioned how the unsold leads get sold to scammers who buy such leads for $10-50 per 1000 leads.
from: nonattender on June 09, 2015, 11:27:46 AM
IMO, only marketing channels used by Prosper and Lending Club that are not accessible to other platforms are their own borrowers for refinancing and exclusive referral partnerships such as Sam's Club and community banks. Lending Club recently announced roll out of the small business financing through Sam's Club. They are offering 20% discount in origination fee to member requesting loan through Sam's Club. I am also aware of how discount superstores like Costco squeeze the vendors for referral fees for Costco referral programs for cars, kitchen remodeling, and appliances etc, I doubt these referral leads are "cheap" in any way for Lending Club.
Just an hypothetical example for brain gymnastics: Origination fees on LC business loans is 1 - 6% without referral, that is $1,000 - $6,000 for $100,000 loans. The referral lead from Sam's Club at 20% discount to borrower already costing $200 - 1,200 on such loans. I doubt Sam's Club taking less than 20-30% of origination fee as referral fee for each successfully issued loan, i.e. another $200 - 900 referral fee to Sam's Club. I would guess fees for referral leads are the major portion of borrower acquisition cost, doesn't matter who is originating loans.
My understanding is that most platforms including Lending Club use variety of marketing channels including online advertising (adwords, banner ads, referral ads), lead generation sites such as Credit Karma, direct mailing, tv and print ads, and users checking their interest rates on platform and affiliate websites. You might get an idea of marketing channels used by different platform and their effectiveness by looking at marketing channel codes in Prosper historical data.
The borrower lead generation is very interesting business, more qualified the leads more expensive the leads. Some borrower lead generation vendors use auction style system. There are lot of scammy operations in this space. I can't find the source but there was an article in one of the publications (WaPo, NYT) about the underbelly of borrower lead generation business. There are hundreds of sites (credit repair, quick loans, etc) online whose sole purpose is to capture enough information about you to request credit check and then auction off the leads based on quality. The article mentioned how the unsold leads get sold to scammers who buy such leads for $10-50 per 1000 leads.
from: nonattender on June 09, 2015, 11:27:46 AM
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 09, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 09, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
In the business lending space, buying a good "lead" can cost a lender or broker $200 (or more). And that's just for information collected on a website. The odds of reaching that business by phone or email is low and the odds of them turning into a closed deal is lower. http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-09-02/larry-king-s-business-loans-will-cost-you
The online lead gen business is huge. The Larry King campaign was run by an Internet lead gen company. They did no lending themselves.
Less than a year ago I believe Prosper's Ron Suber said in front of a conference audience that until recently they were almost entirely dependent on direct mail. I found that shocking but I believe that's still the bread and butter for consumer lending.
The online lead gen business is huge. The Larry King campaign was run by an Internet lead gen company. They did no lending themselves.
Less than a year ago I believe Prosper's Ron Suber said in front of a conference audience that until recently they were almost entirely dependent on direct mail. I found that shocking but I believe that's still the bread and butter for consumer lending.
Title: Give up some numbers.
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 09, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
Post by: TravelingPennies on June 09, 2015, 11:00:00 PM