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P2P-Picks is off line

Started by Peter, June 29, 2015, 11:00:00 PM

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Rob L


TravelingPennies

A user's post mortem to P2P Picks:

Started using P2P Picks buying LC notes in May 2013 furiously pounding my mouse at feeding times. Think I had the initial $100k manually invested through the web interface within 3-4 months. Can you imagine doing that now? Back then there were four loan bins; Top 1%, 5%, 10% and 25%. Relatively late in my initial investment cycle (fortunately) I had the bright idea to scale note size to loan bin ($100 to 1%, $75 to 5%, $50 to 10% and $25 to 25%). That did not work out very well. There were not enough 1% loans to get much diversification and they were the highest risk (variance); typically Grade F. Bryce must have come to the same conclusion as he combined the 1% and 5% bins, eliminating 1%. It was clear my note size scaling idea was a loser. The D's and E's were performing well so I began investing $25 per note in those in the the top 5% and 10% bins. Later I went to $50 notes, and finally I added $25 notes in the 25% bin to keep the cash invested. As competition heated up for high interest rate notes I was lucky enough to have the the rudimentary programming skills needed to auto buy selections from the P2PP web page and then auto-invest them with LC using their SOAP API. As the arms race accelerated P2P Picks provided an API and LC moved to a REST API; I went with the flow.

Basically I now think there are quite a number of real dog loans out there in every release and then everything else. Avoid the dogs and things will work out just fine. At least that's my hope.
And, oh yes, diversify.

So, for the record, here's one P2P Picks user's results on the closing day of the P2P Picks web site; hope you find it interesting:

https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FG8Oqc2W.png&hash=f7d19b7fece325f1a22dabe7ffbd4816" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FAPfzjM2.png&hash=c54f359ddffbf8522dec18e7c23c2040" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fg02ttoC.png&hash=529b8e7efee49bb164e6f950d8322bca" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfsuvfoA.png&hash=eedfc330048f5b77be9572a013c9c762" alt="" class="bbc_img" />
Chart by Interest Radar

https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FPaW1WaS.png&hash=ac0b637828552b28e50815cf990d7c8d" alt="" class="bbc_img" />
Chart by Interest Radar
Note the PMAX 1 portfolio didn't (hasn't) worked out well.






edward

Under your Portfolio names, what does the "NM" stand for in the PMAX selections? And thanks so much for sharing all your information. It's always so informative to see this type info from experienced investors for comparison.

TravelingPennies

According to the comments in my auto-invest code on 7/19/2014 P2P Picks released new models.
I really don't remember the specifics, but Bryce could chime in here with a bit of clarification.
Anyway, at that point I created the NM  portfolios to track the new model performance versus the old.
Don't remember thinking it was much of a big deal at the time, but I'll bet there's something here on LA that will illuminate the point.
For the record the picks ( 1%, 5%, 10% and 25%) were originally ordered from best model score to worst.
The 1% picks were combined with the 5%. Think I remember Bryce commenting on the hazards of reinvesting skewed heavily toward 1%.
Personally I consider F notes unpredictable (in the numbers available) and simply no longer buy any.
I believe Bryce later randomized the picks within each bin (5% 10% and 25%) before posting them on the website (or API).

thezfunk

I don't feel like posting all the screen shots unless there is a huge uproar to do so but I can tell you P2P-Picks had me earning ~17% with primary notes only and then I started selling distressed notes on the secondary market so my combined return was ~12%.  My trading only portion was ~4.5% but that was coming up as I started getting out ahead of distressed notes in that instead of waiting for them to go bad I would sell anything with a FICO score drop of 50 points or more.  My account was quite a bit smaller than Rob's as well.

edit:  Portfolio is average of ~9+ months old.


TravelingPennies

I was doing a google search for information related PRs on File.  Look at what was the top google searched. This was before my time so I thought it was a very cool read to see some of Bryce's first comments on his picks!!

Title: Public Records on File.. do you ever invest in the note?
http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=540.0" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=540.0

https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php?topic=540.msg1749#msg1749">Quote"> from: brycemason on December 14, 2012, 04:58:11 PM


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